Before we get into predictions or fundamentals, to give you an update, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $65,000.
In mid-January, Bitcoin was hovering near $75,000. From that point on, it didn’t fall off the cliff; the blood flow slowly and uncomfortably lowered. The down payment is $72,000. Then $70,000. Then $68K. Now, $65,000.
Related: Analysts predict Bitcoin will fall to $40,000 after 1T market tumbles
This slow collapse is often more disturbing than the sudden decline. There’s no one headline to blame, no clear panic candle, just selling and fading confidence.
Earlier, we had FTX, Luna, etc. for several reasons. Today is one of those times where there is no real reason to blame the accident.
Analysts began to speak out loud the silent parts. Some are warning that Bitcoin could fall below $60,000. Others, including analysts at Zacks Investment Research, have floated the scenario that Bitcoin could revisit $40,000 levels if risk appetite continues to deteriorate.
So, yes, the cryptocurrency market is under pressure. Emotions are weak. ETF flows are negative. Even gold and silver, considered safe havens, have been volatile.
That’s why JPMorgan’s latest call feels so jarring.
Because while Bitcoin is slipping, the largest bank in the United States just said that Bitcoin could eventually reach $266,000.
In a report released this week, JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said that even amid the current market decline, Bitcoin is more attractive than gold after adjusting for volatility.
Specifically, analysts are focusing on Bitcoin to gold volatility, which has dropped to around 1.5, a record low. This means that Bitcoin is no longer more volatile than gold, at least by historical standards.
“Gold’s sharp outperformance relative to Bitcoin since October, combined with a sharp rise in gold’s volatility, has resulted in Bitcoin becoming more attractive than gold over the long term.” analysts wrote.
Using this framework, JPMorgan estimates that Bitcoin’s market capitalization would need to rise enough to mean a price of about $266,000 per coin to match the size of private sector gold investment, which they peg at about $8 trillion (excluding central bank holdings).
The bank was careful to add context.
Analysts said the price target for this year was “unrealistic.” But in the longer term, this scenario will make sense once negative sentiment subsides and Bitcoin is once again seen as a reliable hedge against extreme economic scenarios.
Importantly, banks are not turning a blind eye to what is happening.
JPMorgan Chase pointed out that as technology stocks weakened, risk assets sold off, and the Solana-based DeFi platform Step Finance suffered a $29 million hack, investor confidence was once again hit, and the cryptocurrency market faced new pressures.
Bitcoin’s recent decline has also put it below its estimated production cost, which JPMorgan puts at around $87,000. Historically, production costs have been a “soft price floor,” but if Bitcoin remains below that level, unprofitable miners may exit the market, dragging costs (and potentially prices) even lower.
Still, analysts noted that the liquidation was relatively mild compared with previous crashes. The futures market has not deleveraged as much as the complete collapse of October 2025, and institutional selling of CME futures has been contained.
The real story here isn’t $266,000. This is gold.
JPMorgan recently raised its long-term outlook for gold to $8,000-$8,500 an ounce, citing structural demand and volatility dynamics.
That’s what’s happening now.
JP Morgan believes that if Bitcoin continues to move closer to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis, the long-term upside will become mathematically difficult to ignore, even if the path ahead is dire.
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January 2024: JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Bitcoin has a fair value of nearly $45,000 and warned that post-ETF hype could subside and put pressure on prices in the short term.
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June 2024: Analysts believe that Bitcoin remains a “high beta risk asset” and expect trading to be range-bound unless institutional adoption accelerates significantly.
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November 2024: JPMorgan Chase has launched a gold comparison framework, suggesting that if Bitcoin can meet private gold investment demand, its price could reach over $150,000 within a few years.
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October 2025: The bank outlined a scenario for gains of $165,000 to $170,000 over six to 12 months, driven by improving volatility dynamics relative to gold.
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Late November 2025: JPMorgan expanded its long-term thesis, arguing that if Bitcoin matures as a macro hedge asset, it will bring about $240,000 in structural upside.
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February 2026: The analyst raised the long-term theoretical target to $266,000, saying it is unrealistic in the short term but achievable over time if Bitcoin continues to compete with gold on a volatility-adjusted basis.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investing is highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
Related: MicroStrategy Struggling Before Profitability After Recent Bitcoin Crash
This article was originally published by TheStreet on February 5, 2026, and first appeared in the Markets section. Click here to add TheStreet as your preferred source.
