With the new fantasy baseball season quickly approaching, it’s time to get some graded rankings from my Shuffle Up series. Use them for salary cap drafts, straight drafts, retention decisions or just to understand the ebb and flow of positions. The infield games started last week and wrap up on Monday; now, we head to the outfield. Pitchers will follow later this week.
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(Shohei Ohtani — the hitter version — and Marcell Ozuna only qualify for the utility position; I’ve included them in the outfield.)
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These numbers are inherently unscientific and are intended to reflect where talent is concentrated and lost. As usual, let’s assume a 5×5 scoring system and let’s get started.
More rankings
big ticket
You’re welcome to break the Judge/Otani tie any way you like. In most leagues, they’re obviously going to go 1-2 in some order. Judge is three years older, but Ohtani also has the pressure of a wideout assignment. Both have strong lineup support behind them. Ohtani’s 59 steals two years ago proved to be an outlier; he once did it for fun but may now realize there’s no point in running it so aggressively during the regular season. The Dodgers start each year with more focus on health in October than any other club in baseball.
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Announcer Keith Hernandez has said for years that any player could steal 15 or so bases if he put in the effort. Soto went one step further, leading the National League with 38 hits in 42 attempts after seven straight seasons of stop-and-go baseball. Even if Soto’s tackling ability has regressed, he’s still a multi-category monster entering his age-27 season. The timing might be right for his first MVP year.
Schwarber is only a utility player in some formats and has outfield status in others. All I know is that he’s an incredible value in the second round. The power is elite, the run output is outstanding, and he hasn’t been a major batting average drain in two years. He might have zero steals, but he could have 10 if he wanted to (last year, he wanted to). The opening point maximizes the volume. I will make sure to own some Schwarber stock this summer.
Fantasy baseball sages Glenn Colton and Rick Wolfe would remind us that there are risks involved in paying for a fantasy baseball prospect who is about to start a big contract and join a new team. Tucker has been plagued by injuries the past two years, which is also frustrating. On the bright side, Tucker is still only 29 years old, and he’s currently isolated from a Los Angeles lineup that’s one of the strongest in baseball. Tucker didn’t come into training camp with ridiculous pressure given the star power in Los Angeles and the reasonable expectations that the Dodgers were already in the playoffs. He’ll be a first-round pick in some leagues and an early second-round pick in others.
legal building blocks
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Crowe-Armstrong is one of the toughest rankings this spring. He was a legitimate MVP candidate before halftime (25 homers, 27 steals, .847 OPS), and after the break he was a mediocre player (6 homers, 8 steals, .634 OPS). The southpaw knocked bats out of his hands all year (.188/.217/.376). Of course, his angelic defense will earn him a well-deserved spot in the lineup. PCA’s class juice forces me to keep the salary in the high 20s, but we’ll see if I have the guts to click on his name when the draft counts in March.
My friend Joe Sheehan explained in his newsletter why his win total is lower than Houston’s this year. Part of the reason: “Yordan Alvarez can only do so much in a full season, and I’m not sure you can plan out a full season in Yordan Alvarez.” Bingo. Alternatively, it’s not fun to play fantasy baseball like an actuary, but that’s almost always the cautious angle. Alvarez has a god-like bat and zone judgment, but has Fred G. Sanford in his knees.
For a long time, it felt like Bellinger’s career would never make sense, but he’s started to stabilize over the last three years (.281/.338/.477 slash line, good bounce, resourceful running game). It would be a smart move for him to re-sign in New York, where he posted a .909 OPS and 18 home runs last year. Welcome to the Ibanez All-Star Game, Bellinger is now a bored veteran.
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talk about them talk about them
Can we fast forward to a time when Trout was a DH on a contending team? It’s frustrating to watch him toil for the desperate Angels, and you wonder how much patrolling the outfield will affect his durability. Trout did play in all 130 games last year, his most since 2019, and despite his .232/.359/.439 slash line, that was a respectable 121 OPS+ compared to a league environment. Paid for about 110 games this year, mind you he shut down the running game a few years ago.
Burleson won the Silver Slugger last year? Oh yeah, utility slots. He may be parked at first base this year but still be eligible to play in the outfield. The improvement last year against lefties was the biggest improvement of his career, and you love drafting players in his career (this is his age-27 season). The Cardinals are no longer an exciting destination offense, which might give you a slight discount on Burleson.
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Kwan’s style of play is a throwback, he just looks for contact and doesn’t care how loud it is. Think of his baseball-savvy slider, his contact stats are all fantastic, but his slugging metrics are barely registering. Still, he hits 10-14 home runs every year, he still runs aggressively, and you can count on his averages to be higher. Diversity of styles is a good thing in sports – too often, it feels like everyone wants to use the same strategies – and I salute Kwan’s willingness to buck the trend.
Some seemingly reasonable benefits
Laureano was probably the most underrated outfielder in fantasy baseball last year—he was the 29th-ranked outfielder in 5×5 value—and I initially thought he was a double-digit value. I was a little worried that the signing of Nick Castellanos might create a logjam in the San Diego outfield, and ultimately, I decided to be cautious with Laureano’s ranking since he’s in his 30s and has never hit 500 at-bats in a season. Still, he’s an above-average hitter and hopefully the Padres can give him some leashes.
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Sanchez would be a smart addition for Toronto, although he will start the season in platoon (heavy duty) form. This is a death blow for a minor league team, but if you’re mid-major and deeper, it’s acceptable. Sanchez may not run as much in red-light Blue Jays games, but he can hit for a reasonable average and hit 15-18 home runs.
Scott had no hits at all last year but still stole 34 bases; imagine what would have happened if he showed any improvement at the plate. His zone judgment is good, and although the hard-hit sliders are all on the low side, that’s not always a problem for the speed merchant. Scott is entering his age-25 season, so now is the time. The rebuilding Cardinals plan to leave him alone and grow at his own pace. Your last pick is all about upside, and Scott can legitimately check that box.