Baseball is more influenced by luck than any other major professional sport. A player hits the ball to the screw, and the ball travels 100 mph directly into the shortstop’s glove. A few minutes later, someone else hits the ball off the end of the bat, and the ball slowly rolls into space for a homer.
[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]
Life isn’t fair and neither is baseball. But over time, the good breaks and the bad breaks tend to even out, and the truly skilled players rise above the rest. Here are some players who could see their fantasy baseball fortunes turn around after being particularly lucky or unlucky in 2025.
advertise
Positive regression candidate
Juan Soto, OF, New York Mets
Although Soto performed well in his first year in Queens, his Statcast numbers suggest he could be even better. Of course, it’s unlikely that the 27-year-old will hit 38 more bases, but he could make up for that drop by improving his .263 average (19 runs below his career mark). As the fourth overall pick in fantasy drafts, he’s rock solid.
Andrés Giménez, 2B/SS, Toronto Blue Jays
Among players with at least 350 plate appearances, only Tommy Edman has a wider gap between his batting average (.210) and xBA (.252) than Giménez. Collecting bases is crucial to an infielder’s fantasy value, as it provides him with the necessary opportunities to accumulate steals. Jimenez, a career .253 hitter with 30 steals in the 2023 and 2024 seasons, is a strong bounce-back candidate.
advertise
Luis García Jr., 2B, Washington Nationals
The combination of age, experience and positive return potential makes Garcia one of my favorite draft targets. There’s a big gap between the infielder’s actual and expected runs in xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA. Garcia, six games into his age-26 season, could post his first 20-20 season and improve .266 above his career average.
Ben Rice, C/1B, New York Yankees
Rice quickly became a popular breakout candidate as more fantasy managers realized his projected numbers in 2025 dwarfed his actual points. Rice is especially worthy of improvement after posting a .499 SLG and .557 xSLG that ranked eighth in baseball. He was a top-five catcher selection.
advertise
Salvador Perez, center, Royals
This is a tough one for me because I don’t feel good about investing in a soon-to-be 36-year-old receiver when the position is deeper than ever. Still, it’s eye-popping that in a season in which Perez hit 30 homers and 100 RBIs, the gap between his SLG (.525) and xSLG (.608) was the largest of any player. Add in the fact that the outfield fence is moving toward his home field, and Perez seems like a great candidate to hit 30 home runs again.
Marcus Semien, 2B, New York Mets
Despite posting a line rate of 20.2%, Semien’s BABIP (.251) ranked in the bottom five among all qualified hitters. Such is life for someone who plays half his games at pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field, where Semien posted a .617 OPS last season (.718 road OPS). Now that he’s with the Mets, he should enjoy better luck and at least have a mild bounce-back season.
advertise
Mookie Betts, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Even though Betts played in a hitter-friendly home field and posted a solid 21.1% line rate, his BABIP was .258, 41 points below his career mark. Add in the details of his early-season illness and weight loss, and the 33-year-old appears poised for a bounce-back year.
negative regression candidate
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Track and Field
At just 23 years old, Kurtz showed significant technical improvement in his first full major league season. He needs to make these improvements to keep up the pace he had in his rookie season, as there was a huge gap between his actual and expected numbers. If Kurtz also repeats his 30.9% strikeout rate, it’s unlikely he’ll reach a .290 average. Even if he has a good home base for hitters around him, he probably won’t enjoy that 30.8% HR/FB rate again. Kurtz may not be a better option than first basemen Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Pete Alonso, who have similar ADPs.
advertise
Jacob Wilson, SS, Track and Field
Wilson is in a similar position as his teammate Kurtz. The young man may have a batting title in his future, but he may not be there yet as his .277 xBA last season was well below his actual .311 mark. Wilson is similar to Luis Alas in that he needs an elite batting average to have significant fantasy value. I still like Wilson as a mid-round pick, although I admit there’s risk due to regression issues.
Jordan Beck, Colorado Rockies
It’s easy to get excited about Baker. He hit 16 home runs and had 19 steals in his first full season, showing off a diverse skill set, playing half of his games at Coors Field and easily earning playing time on a rebuilding Rockies team. But there’s a problem – Baker might not be very good.
advertise
He struck out often but didn’t hit the ball particularly hard. His .351 BABIP last year ranked third in baseball. Similar to Kurtz, the youngster needs to show improvement this year to offset an expected decline.
Jeremy Pena, SS, Houston Astros
Pena’s improvement in average performance last season was more due to good luck than technical improvements. His strikeout rate and average exit velocity were nearly identical to the year before. His expected statistics were only slightly better. His .345 BABIP will take a dip, which will impact his numbers in most categories. Combined with his injured finger, Pena is quickly becoming someone I would avoid in the draft.
advertise
Harrison Bader, OF, San Francisco Giants
Some coaches will view Bader as a deep league sleeper. After all, the 31-year-old has 20 steals potential and finished the season with career-high totals in at-bats (501) and home runs (17). Unfortunately, the veteran is totally on my no-draft list. His strikeout rate jumped more than 5% last season to 27.1%, and his .220 xBA was 57 points lower than his actual score. There are similar gaps between his SLG and xSLG, xOBA and xwOBA. Add in the fact that Bader joins a team that suppresses home runs at home, and there are several reasons to prepare for the worst.