If the NFL season started today, one player from the Bills would be the team’s biggest fantasy trade, another player would be the biggest fantasy bust, and a third player would be the biggest fantasy wild card.
For a team that (currently) has high-end production at QB and RB, the market will have the most difficulty evaluating Buffalo’s receivers. Dalton Kincaid won’t get the fantasy love of a proven top-10 TE. But that doesn’t mean he’s not worth betting on finishing in the top ten. Based on weak 2025 numbers, I expect ADP to be around TE12-15. With Dawson Knox a candidate, Kinkaid should finally reach his full potential in 2026.
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My “bust” prediction comes directly from data analysis – specifically, the recent history of NFL RB careers following low-volume college careers. My homemade spreadsheet contains every running back who has entered the league since 1997: what they did in college, and what they did in their careers.
Low-volume college RBs rarely have great fantasy seasons. This makes James Cook a fantasy unicorn. How long can his dominance last? History suggests not for long, especially after a career-high 385 touches (including playoffs). The market will definitely overvalue him.
The wild card is Khalil Shakir, Buffalo’s default alpha WR. I expect this team to invest in an outfield player who can pair with Shakeel and Keon Coleman. The market’s reaction will be a good indicator of whether Shakir is a bargain or a fad.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: 2026 Bills fantasy preview: Biggest bargains, busts and wild cards