The current setup in silver (XAGUSD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is a prime example of a high-risk, high-reward coil spring. Following a parabolic rise in late 2025 that saw silver prices breach the $100 level for the first time in history, silver experienced a sharp correction to the $67 range at the beginning of this year.
The move effectively removed the “bubble” and brought about a reset for silver stocks. Now, silver is positioning itself for a significant follow-on move. But will it rise or fall? Let’s study the chart and examine the bull and bear market scenarios.
I would start with SLV, which owns the silver metal, and then move to the GX Silver Miners ETF (SIL), which owns silver mining stocks. As shown above, SLV’s daily chart has some merit that masks the very unclear bottom of the PPO indicator. Specifically, it is creating higher highs and higher lows. This has been going on for about a month. This is the building block for a bigger rebound.
However, this rally may be just as short-lived as the one that pushed SLV to new all-time highs. Because the weekly chart shown above shows a top pattern. Now I’m eyeing the PPO – but I don’t like the look of it at all.
Translation: SLV has trading potential, but I wouldn’t even consider buying and holding here.
Now let’s look at SIL. The daily chart shows a weaker pattern of higher lows and higher highs. However, as shown by the 20-day moving average, it has been broken.
It sounds strange if SLV looks somewhat tradable but SIL looks rough, but it’s not. Mining stocks will sometimes follow commodity moves, but may also fall back into a market that views them as stocks rather than the best way to own the commodity. I think this is the most likely path.
The bull case for a renewed rally in silver is persistent structural deficits and unique geopolitical tailwinds. The silver market is expected to be in supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year, with a shortfall of approximately 67 million ounces by 2026. Military demand for high-end electronics and a massive expansion of solar infrastructure will exacerbate this shortage. This will transform silver into a 24-hour baseline power component via battery storage.
However, bear market conditions highlight the extreme risks of this volatile asset. Silver is often described as a dual-purpose metal. This means it is sensitive to both industrial growth and safe-haven demand. If the current surge in oil prices leads to prolonged stagflation, the industrial side of the silver equation – electronics and automotive – could see a significant correction.
One way to think about trying to leverage the arbitrage potential, either as SLV rises and SIL falls, or at least SLV outperforms SIL, is to hold SLV and have an inverse exchange-traded fund (ETF) that is short silver stocks. There’s just one problem – there’s no such ETF. Therefore, it is the next best option for aggressive traders.
This is not unique to SIL. not at all. Many sector ETFs are crowded with a handful of stocks. SIL holds about 40 stocks, but the top two account for 20% of the ETF. And the number in the top 10 is more than half. Therefore, one way to go short is to short ETFs. This is not my preference, but others prefer shorting rather than buying inverse ETFs than I do.
Another way is to look at the put options on these top holdings. Pan American Silver (PAAS) is highly correlated to the broader industry, so that would be the first factor to consider.
My current preference for silver and silver stocks is to watch the big decisions unfold closely. But for those familiar with commodities, this avenue of arbitrage may be attractive.
Rob Isbitt created roar scorebased on his more than 40 years of technical analysis experience. ROAR helps DIY investors manage risk and create their own investment portfolios. For Rob’s written research, check out ETFYourself.com.
On the date of publication, Rob Isbitts did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for reference only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com