BEIJING (AP) — On the day the United States and Israel attacked Iran, China waited hours to make its first official stance. It expressed “high concern” and called for an immediate halt to military operations and the resumption of dialogue.
The next day, Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the attack as unacceptable and repeated his call for more negotiations.
There is no sign of any direct intervention – but such expectations are unrealistic. As in other recent conflicts, including last year’s attack on Iran, China has condemned the use of force while remaining on the sidelines, considering its long-term interests.
This time, those interests include U.S. President Donald Trump’s much-anticipated visit to Beijing, expected around early April.
Why is China not participating in this war?
China’s military power is developing rapidly. It has conducted military exercises with Iran and established a base in Djibouti, East Africa, in 2017. But its overwhelming focus is on defending its interests in Asia, from Taiwan to the South China Sea.
It has become involved in Middle East diplomacy and saw opportunities there, helping to broker a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. But International Crisis Group analyst William Young said it viewed the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as cautionary tales that should be avoided.
“China is unwilling to project military power beyond its surrounding areas and is unwilling to play the role of security guarantor in unstable areas such as the Middle East,” he said.
Likewise, it provides diplomatic and economic support to Russia and Venezuela but avoids any military action in Ukraine or Latin America.
Craig Singleton, a senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based research group, said China’s wait-and-see stance shows its limited influence in global geopolitics.
“As expected, Beijing’s response was restrained, underscoring the limits of China’s ability to influence events once hard power comes into play,” he said. “Beijing can send a signal of unease; however, it cannot effectively prevent or influence U.S.-Israeli military operations.”
relations with the United States more than with Iran
Analysts said China’s displeasure over the Iranian attack was unlikely to affect relations with the United States or Trump’s plans to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing in about a month.
For Chinese leaders, relations with the United States are more important than relations with Iran, from trade to economics to Taiwan.
George Chen, a partner at Asia Group, said Beijing may engage in a war of words with Washington over Iran, but a new conflict with Trump would do more harm than good.
“The U.S.-China relationship has become more complex than President Trump and Xi Jinping can handle,” he said. Adding Iran to the mix “is not going to be something that either side is willing to do.”
However, he said there was a possibility that Beijing would postpone Trump’s visit.
Energy issues go beyond Iranian oil
China is the largest importer of Iranian oil, but the government is deeply concerned about energy security and has developed alternatives. Of greatest concern are rising prices and the potential loss of access to oil and gas from the greater Middle East.
According to data analysis company Kpler, China imported about 1.4 million barrels of oil per day from Iran last year, accounting for 13% of China’s total seaborne oil imports. But the company estimates there is enough oil in transit to last another four to five months. Kpler senior analyst Muyu Xu said this would give China’s independent refiners time to adjust and seek alternatives to discounted Russian oil as their main option.
Singleton said China has been working for years to diversify its supply and build up reserves. “At least in the short term, the loss of Iranian oil appears to be trivial rather than material,” he said.
Iran’s attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow opening to the Persian Gulf – are more worrisome, as are any attacks on Gulf states’ liquefied natural gas facilities.
Major supplier Qatar Energy halted LNG production on Monday after attacks on its facilities.
Why China Might Not Help Arm Iran
Analysts say China is unlikely to provide weapons to Iran to help it fight the United States for a number of reasons.
“Tangible military assistance, if any, will be limited to existing long-term defense trade arrangements, rather than rapid battlefield support, and will be constrained by Beijing’s interest in avoiding direct confrontation with the United States and its allies,” said Mohammad Zulfikar Rahmat, a researcher at the Indonesian Center for Economic and Legal Research.
China has criticized the United States for providing weapons to Ukraine, saying it is prolonging the fighting.
James M. Dorsey, an adjunct senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said Iran’s missile program is based on Chinese technology. But he predicted that China would err on the side of caution and not sell any missiles to the country’s military.
“What China wants is an end to this,” he said.
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Associated Press writers Kanis Leung in Hong Kong, Didi Tang in Washington, E. Eduardo Castillo in Beijing and Simina Mistreanu in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed.
