The old adage goes, “March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb,” but in Texas, the script often flips. Instead of calming down as the month progresses, the weather becomes more active, with increasing atmospheric humidity from the Gulf of Mexico colliding with dry air masses, causing more frequent rains and thunderstorms.
“Severe weather season is here and will continue into May,” Mike Morris, a climate meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Austin and San Antonio offices, said during Monday’s spring climate briefing. “May typically brings the highest risk for hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. It’s also the wettest month of the year, so the threat of flash flooding increases.”
We’re only a few days into the new month, but the weather is pretty calm: clouds in the morning, sunny and breezy in the afternoon, and afternoon temperatures in the mid-80s above normal.
The short-term forecast for Tuesday calls for similar weather, with clouds in the morning with temperatures in the mid-60s and partly cloudy with southerly winds in the afternoon, with afternoon highs rising into the mid- to upper 80s.
After morning temperatures drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s, temperatures will rise into the 80s across south and central Texas. (key)
The long-term forecast is for a dramatic change in our quiet and predictable weather patterns, with the recent period of dry weather giving way to heavy rainfall, with the potential for severe weather later this week and into the upcoming weekend.
The high pressure ridge that dominated our weather during the last week of February will eventually move eastward. This will allow the cold front to move into the Lone Star State, but not before losing momentum and stalling in the area. This will be the focus of the first round of rain mid-week.
A cold front will move into Texas on Wednesday before stalling, potentially bringing heavy rainfall and severe storms, especially in North Texas. (Weather Forecast Center)
Meanwhile, an upper-level low pressure system to the west will introduce several atmospheric disturbances into Texas over the next week or so. That’s why the weather service’s Storm Prediction Center is putting parts of Texas under the threat of severe weather through the weekend.
Starting Wednesday, we’ll first see rain and thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall and severe storms in North Texas. Still, there’s still a 30-40% chance of storms in south Texas. Thursday will be dry, but the chance of rain will increase again on Friday and continue through the weekend.
Rain will begin to fall across south-central Texas on Wednesday as a second storm moves across the state this weekend. (National Weather Service)
“As we are still in a very wet and unstable environment, any storms that develop are likely to produce heavier rainfall,” Met Office meteorologists wrote in a discussion of the forecast posted online on Monday. “It is important to note now that there is a very high level of uncertainty about how this all unfolds as models are still all over the place and are likely to stay that way until we get closer.”
More specifically, temperatures are expected to continue to be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than the average high temperature of 70 degrees in early March for the remainder of this week and the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures in San Antonio will remain above normal for the rest of the week, with highs in the 80s. (weather clock)
This article was originally published on Texas is facing the threat of thunderstorms this week. Here’s what to look forward to in San Antonio.
