This is a technical analysis article by Omkar Godbole, CoinDesk Analyst and Chartered Market Technician.
Payment-centric cryptocurrency It took a big hit this week, falling more than 6% to $2, a level that has become a make-or-break line for Ripple-related tokens.
Since December, this level has become a bear market fatigue zone, with selling pressure tending to ease, as shown by the lower shadows of the multi-week candles.
The bottom line: if support at $2 disappears, disappointed holders may exit, causing the price to slide further.
Currently, the price is holding the support line. For the outlook to turn bullish, the price would need to overcome the descending trendline connecting the lower highs from July, currently hovering around $2.50.
Speaking of Bitcoin The leading cryptocurrency is hovering near what may be the most critical trio of support ever: a bullish trendline tracking higher lows in 2023 and 2024, the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the brutal bear market bottom in late 2022 to just above $126,000, which recently set a new all-time high.
Beyond this point, attention shifts to April’s swing low near $74,500 and then to the 2021 bull market peak just below $70,000. Some traders have already taken action to prepare for a Bitcoin breakout above $80,000 in early 2026.
From a higher perspective, if BTC bulls want to convince the market that the broader bull market is still active, then they need to recapture the 50-week moving average, a key lifeline just above $102,252.
Nasdaq tops?
That task is easier said than done, as a classic “hanging man” candlestick pattern appears on the Nasdaq’s monthly chart, warning of impending weakness. Bitcoin and tech stocks tend to move in lockstep.
This pattern is characterized by a small real body near the top of the candle, a long lower shadow that is at least twice the length of the real body, and little or no upper shadow, indicating that selling pressure is emerging and the uptrend may be losing steam.
When it occurs at all-time highs, as is the case with the Nasdaq, it warns of a possible reversal or a pause in the advance, indicating that traders should pay close attention to confirmation of a bearish turn in subsequent candles.
So, between these knife-edge support levels for XRP and Bitcoin and the volatile top signal on the Nasdaq, traders have a lot to do. Perhaps the Santa Claus rally that tech and cryptocurrency bulls are hoping for may not come this year.
