WASHINGTON (AP) — An intelligence assessment completed shortly before the United States and Israel launched war against Iran determined that U.S. military intervention was unlikely to lead to regime change in the Islamic Republic, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The National Intelligence Council’s February assessment concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, longer-term military campaign would bring a new government to power in Iran, even if the current leadership is killed, said two people who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the classified report.
The decision undercuts the administration’s assertion that it can accomplish its goals in Iran relatively quickly, perhaps within weeks. The U.S. government says it does not seek regime change in Iran, despite the attacks that have killed many figures in Iran’s leadership and who President Donald Trump believes he would like to see lead the country.
Intelligence assessments have concluded that no strong or unified opposition coalition is prepared to take over Iran if its leaders are killed, according to people familiar with the matter. It determined that the Iranian regime would try to maintain continuity of power if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, people familiar with the matter said.
Iran’s leading clergy on Sunday chose a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to replace his father who was killed at the start of the war, based on a review. The choice of the son, who is believed to have stronger views than his father, is a signal of strong resistance from Iran’s leadership and that the government will not step aside quickly.
Details of the assessment were earlier reported by The Washington Post and The New York Times.
Trump and other senior administration leaders have given varying rationales for the attacks that began on February 28, saying they were necessary to defeat Iran’s nuclear weapons program or preempt a ballistic missile attack. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the war is not about regime change, Trump has said that is something he would like to see happen.
A message seeking comment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence was not immediately returned Monday. Last year, Director Tulsi Gabbard fired the commission’s acting chair after the release of a declassified National Intelligence Council memo that contradicted statements used by the Trump administration to justify deporting Venezuelan immigrants.
Trump has been deeply suspicious of the U.S. intelligence community since his first term and often cast its findings as politically motivated or part of a “deep state” effort to undermine his presidency.
Richard Goldberg, who served as the National Security Council’s counter-Iran weapons of mass destruction director during Trump’s first term, noted that there is also a level of skepticism about the intelligence community because of some of its major missteps in recent years.
U.S. intelligence agencies generally failed to predict the rapid overthrow of the Afghan government by the Taliban in 2021, with most assessments suggesting a much slower takeover. Before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the Department of Defense, and the CIA incorrectly estimated that Kiev would soon fall to a larger and better-equipped Russian military.
Goldberg, now a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish think tank in Washington, said the intelligence assessment was “almost like an op-ed from the intelligence community.”
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Associated Press reporters Aamer Madhani in Doral, Florida, and David Klepper in Washington contributed to this report.
