By Omkar Godbole (All times Eastern unless otherwise noted)
The Iran war has single-handedly worsened the macro environment for financial market risk-takers, with some players betting the war could end soon.
On-chain data tracked by Polymarket tracker PolymarketHistory shows that 10 wallets were active on Sunday, accumulating $160,000 in bets for the end-March ceasefire, with potential payouts expected to exceed $1 million. The wallets had no previous transaction history and were created at the same time, raising suspicions about the results from potential insiders.
Regardless, if the war ends, markets, including cryptocurrencies, may see a relief rally.
However, now that the conflict is entering its fourth week, valuations are under pressure. Bitcoin As of this writing, the price remains below $69,000, maintaining its losses from the weekend. Ethereum fell to $2,030, its sixth drop in seven days. Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), Other cryptocurrencies are also under pressure, with some privacy coins like NIGHT and XMR standing out, gaining more than 3% in the past 24 hours.
Timothy Misir, BRN’s director of research, said in an email: “The most important theme in market trading is geopolitical inflation. Over the weekend, the situation entered a new phase of escalation, including U.S. pressure on Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and further threats to regional energy infrastructure. This has led to a continued increase in oil risks and has investors pricing in a longer period of tight financial conditions.”
“To this tape, Bitcoin still has the cleanest value capture characteristics among cryptocurrencies: scarce assets, improving institutional pipelines, and liquidity leadership relative to other complexities,” he said.
However, market flows have yet to confirm this view. On Friday, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows for a third day in a row, while large investors or whales also sold heavily.
Ethereum also saw massive liquidations. According to Lookonchain, a whale holding over 130,000 ETH sold 5,000 ETH ($10.31 million) for $2,063.
In traditional markets, U.S. Treasury yields have surged to multi-month highs, signaling tighter financial conditions ahead, while futures linked to the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hit their lowest levels since early November. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptocurrency
- Macro
- March 23, 10:00 am: U.S. construction spending in January is expected to be 0.1% month-on-month (previous value: 0.3%).
- income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
- March 23: BTCS Inc. (BTCS), post-market, $0.01
Token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- The Aave DAO is voting to deploy Aave V4, which features a security-first initial setup, conservative risk parameters, and a modular hub-and-spoke architecture. Voting ends on March 23.
- The Floki DAO is voting to rank entries for Floki’s third annual Guerrilla Marketing Competition. Voting ends on March 23.
- Unlock
- Token issuance
- March 23: HTX DAO (HTX) staking officially launched
Meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
market trend
- BTC is up 3.01% to $71,044.86 as of 4pm ET on Sunday (24 hours: +3.56%)
- ETH rises 5.07% to $2,168.32 (24 hours: +4.20%)
- CoinDesk 20 up 3.05% to 2,030.41 (24 hours: 2.56%)
- The comprehensive pledge rate of Ethereum CESR increased by 13 basis points to 2.83%
- The BTC financing interest rate on Binance is -0.0017% (annualized -1.8177%)
- DXY rose 0.45% to 104.30
- Gold futures fell 7.27% to $4,238.30
- Silver futures fell 8.18% to $63.69
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.48% at 51,515.49 points
- The Hang Seng Index closed down 3.54% to 24,382.47 points
- The FTSE 100 fell 2.03% to 9,716.51
- The Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 2.01% to 5,390.70
- The Dow closed down 0.96% on Friday at 45,577.47 points
- The S&P 500 closed down 1.51% at 6,506.48 points
- The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 2.01% at 21,647.61 points
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 1.69% at 31,317.41 points
- The S&P 40 Latin America Index closed down 1.15% at 3,150.00
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate rose 11 basis points to 4.39%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 1.03% to 6,626.75
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.54% to 24,231
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 1.15% to 46,147 points
Bitcoin Statistics
- Bitcoin dominance: 58.89% (0.52%)
- Ethereum-Bitcoin ratio: 0.02989 (-1.24%)
- Computing power (seven-day moving average): 963 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $32.30
- Total fee: 2.07 BTC / $142,462
- CME Futures Open Interest: 116,195 BTC
- BTC in gold: 16 ounces.
- Bitcoin and gold market capitalization: 4.58%
technical analysis
- This chart shows daily fluctuations in Bitcoin’s 30-day implied (expected) volatility index BVIV since October.
- BVIV has rebounded to 59% from 53% on Wednesday and further gains may be on the way.
- This is because the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is well above the 200-day moving average and is moving north. It indicates that the near-term trend is upward.
- Increased volatility is often a feature of bear markets.
crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Friday at $197.50 (-2.67%), closing at $192 pre-market -2.78%
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $20.72 (-1.57%), -3.19% at $20.06
- MARA Holdings (MARA): Closed at $8.46 (-8.24%), -3.07% at $8.20
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $13.38 (-5.37%), -4.33% at $12.80
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $15.81 (-4.07%), -2.09% at $15.48
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $9.40 (-4.37%), -3.19% at $9.10
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $7.38 (-4.53%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): Closed at $37.68 (-3.63%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Closed at $126.03 (-1.79%), -4.36% at $120.54
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $37.97 (-4.12%), -4.40% at $36.30
Cryptocurrency Treasury Corporation
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $135.66 (-1.87%), -2.70% at $132.00
- Sharplink (SBET): Closed at $7.40 (-3.65%), -4.46% at $7.07
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): Closed at $10.02 (-2.34%), -3.79% at $9.64
- Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $1.06 (-0.93%), -6.59% at $0.99
- Lite Strategies (LITS): Closed at $1.17
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETF
- Net daily traffic: -$52 million
- Cumulative net flow: $56.21 billion
- Total BTC holdings are approximately 1.29 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Net daily traffic: -$42 million
- Cumulative net flow: $11.76 billion
- The total amount of ETH held is about 5.69 million
Source: Farside Investors
