Fantasy Championship Week is underway. Hopefully there won’t be too many players on the field over Christmas. Even if you do, these are the players you need to start getting back into contention.
Starts with: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Lawrence’s performance over the past month has him skyrocketing as QB5 this year, and sportsbooks are very keen on the Jaguars offense. Their implied team point total of 27.5 is the fifth-highest this week. Lawrence ranks 20th in EPA against the Colts defense per retreat allowed. Since Indy was a top 10 competitor, their pass rate this year was 2% higher than expected. It was the third-highest mark in the league. In the best rhythm of his career, Lawrence is a safe bet with QB1 numbers against the Colts.
advertise
Start: Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals
Brissett has made 11 starts this year. He has only been out of the QB1 ranking twice and is averaging 19.8 points per game, making him the QB5 since taking over. This week, his Bengals defense ranks 30th in EPA allowed per game. Cincinnati gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing passers. Their total score for the game was 53.5 points, the highest score of the week. Each game has been a three-point lead except the Bears/49ers.
Sitting: CJ Stroud, Texans
Stroud was the best quarterback but never scored any fantasy points. He is EPA’s QB9 per game and is in the top 10 every week this year. In Week 17, the odds were against him. The Chargers ranked fifth on defense in EPA allowed per retreat. They have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The game-wide point total has dropped to 39.5, with the Texans holding 19 points total. For reference, that number is lower than the Dolphins and Raiders.
advertise
Sitting: Jaxson Dart, Giants
He was only amused when the Giants let Dart run. Those days are gone. Dart has three designed carries in three games since Brian Daboll was fired. With Mike Kafka as interim head coach, he averaged 30 yards per game. That’s a lot for some quarterbacks. Not suitable for Dart. Under Daboll, the rookie averaged 7.9 attempts per game for 45 yards and one touchdown. Dart would be an interesting bet in 2026, but his time at QB2 is over this season.
Starter: Omarion Hampton, Chargers
Kimani Vidal could be on the opposite side of the issue this week, with Hassan Haskins likely backing up Hampton. Haskins had four attempts last week. He didn’t run any routes. Hampton had at least five catches in three straight games before going on IR with a foot injury earlier this year. Despite leaving early in the third game, he completed 62 percent of his routes behind Justin Herbert and had a 15 percent target share in those three games. He averaged 21.1 points per game.
advertise
Starts with: Bucky Owen, Pirates
Bucky’s starts haven’t been interesting since he returned to the lineup, but his usage rate has remained solid. Irving has completed 69 percent of the team’s passes over the past two weeks and has hit a decent (but not great) 42 percent of his routes. A lack of goal-line work has been an issue in recent weeks, but Irving may be able to find the end zone from deep on Sunday. Miami ranks 26th in explosive run rate.
Sitting: Derrick Henry, Ravens
The Packers are a run funnel as they face a high volume of rushing attempts. However, they are not an easy team to get along with. Green Bay ranks 11th in yards after contact per rush allowed and 10th in yards before contact. They gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Lamar Jackson is listed as questionable for Week 17 with a back injury, which means the Packers will have an easier time focusing on stopping Henry.
advertise
Sitting: Brees Hall, Jets
Hall’s season ended three weeks ago, we just didn’t know it yet. Brady Cook has played in three games this year. These were disastrous for Hall.
lobby.png
He hasn’t had an RB1 grade since Week 10, and that doesn’t appear to be changing this week. Hall’s shooting percentage has dropped below 50% in the past two games. He has seen one goal line since Justin Fields left the lineup in Week 11. The Jets simply can’t support a top-24 fantasy return for Cook at center.
Starter: Adonai Mitchell, Jets
We activate our Air Code King one last time. Even with Brady Cook on the floor, Mitchell accounted for 40 percent of the Jets’ air yards and 23 percent of their targets. Mitchell has a 29.5% first-read target share and has seen one-third of the team’s end zone. The Patriots’ defense is good in all areas, but if there’s any area where they can be beaten, it’s from long range. New England allows the 10th-lowest rate of explosive plays in the air.
advertise
Starter: Mike Hollins, Patriots
KeShon Bute is expected to miss this week with a concussion. In the two games Butt missed earlier this season, Hollins averaged 13.5 PPR points. With Butt out, Hollins solidified the field in the air. In those two weeks, he completed 25% of his target share and 35% of his air yards. It’s worth noting that Hollins is dealing with an abdominal injury and a Christmas Day practice schedule makes it difficult to know his Week 17 status as of Friday morning. If you’re going to start Hollins, keeping Kyle Williams as the backup is a smart move. Williams has 16 targets this year, 12 of which came from 10 or more yards downfield.
Sitting: Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers
This one may be quite short. Egbuka completed Baker Mayfield’s 50% drop route last week. Jalen McMillan ran more routes than him and outscored him 3-2. These are not odds numbers for playable fantasy options.
advertise
Sitting: Jaden Reed, Packers
The Packers/Ravens split has grown to six points, and Jackson is listed as questionable for Week 17. Regardless of who starts at quarterback, that’s enough to fill the football world. When leading, Green Bay ranks 20th in the passing game. Their offensive pace was ninth, but still ahead. Reed’s 16% target share since returning from IR wasn’t enough to get home in this week’s run-first game.
Starter: Juwan Johnson, Saints
Johnson has reached at least 7 PPR points in a dozen games this year — a number that’s completely arbitrary, except for the fact that that’s the mark he reaches most midweeks. The last time his PPR was below 7 points was in Week 6. His current streak of high performances coincides with the trade of Rashid Shaheed and the benching of Spencer Rattler, which is no surprise. He scored 2 points per game when Shough was on the court and 1.6 points per game when Shaheed left. Johnson was clearly the TE1 against a toothless Titans defense.
advertise
Starter: Darnell Washington, Steelers
DK Metcalf will miss the next two weeks and is suspended for an altercation with a fan. Metcalf aside, Darnell Washington ranks second on the Steelers in targets since Week 3 behind Kenneth Gainwell. Washington leads the non-Metcalf Steelers in yards per route this year (1.68). Only Jaylen Warren averages a higher YAC per catch than the burly tight end. For the rest of the regular season, when Metcalf was on the ice, he was their best option for passing the ball in the air.
Sitting: Mark Andrews, Ravens
Things got dire for Andrews when Jackson was out. When Jackson was out, he went from a viable TE2 averaging 8.6 points per game to a TE3 averaging 5.3 points per game.
andrews.png
The Packers have also been particularly stingy against tight ends. They have given up points this year to finish eighth. There are better options than Andrews on your waiver wire this week.
advertise
Sitting: Oronde Gadsden, Chargers
The Chargers have been using their backup tight end more often recently, possibly to make up for the loss of left tackle Joe Alt. This in turn seemed to end the Gadsden Experiment. Over the past month, he has set a target share of 12% on 67% of routes. Last month, Gadsden completed 21 percent of the team’s targets at a route rate of 79 percent.
