NFL combine week isn’t over yet, and many Dallas Cowboys fans have already identified their favorite candidates. From safety Caleb Downs to linebacker Sonny Styles, there are plenty of playmakers in this year’s annual draft. But which rookies will make it to No. 12 and which ones will be long gone? This is an age-old question with no clear answer. Of course, CeeDee Lamb dropping to 17 lets Cowboys fans know anything is possible, but what is actually possible?
Twitter celebrity Eric the Eagle ran a Monte Carlo simulation of the mock draft in an attempt to gauge each rookie’s likelihood of going undrafted and which ones were most likely to emerge when their respective teams went overtime. The good news for Cowboys fans is that the three most likely outcomes for Dallas are Ohio State linebackers Sonny Styles (13.0%) and Avre Reese (10.6%) and Tennessee cornerback Jermond McCoy (7.1%). The bad news is that the most likely outcome is someone else, with a probability of 69.3%.
It’s safe to say that most Cowboys fans would be happy with either Styles or Reese at No. 12. Feelings about McCoy are compounded given his health issues. McCoy has not played in a game or even had an open workout since tearing his knee in January 2025. After more than a year of recovery time, it is hoped that he is now fully recovered, but until he proves that, his value is in jeopardy.
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Since the “others” category is winning the probability war right now, it’s worth looking into which of these “others” might appear on the board of 12.
According to these simulations, safety Caleb Downs is a dream scenario for most Cowboys fans, with a 44 percent chance. The value at the safety position combined with the team’s needs could make him a possible player if he can escape the evil clutches of the New York Giants.
Rueben Bain, who has shorter than ideal arm length, has a 22% chance of going to Dallas. It’s unlikely, but entirely possible. Mansoor Delane is considered by most to be the best CB in the class, and he has a 49% chance of making the Cowboys. He is essentially a parabola of a coin. And offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa has a 37% chance of scoring 12 points.
For many of these prospects, the odds look better than many thought. However, it’s important to remember that the odds still suggest none of them will pan out and Dallas will have to choose outside of these players.
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It wasn’t until standout OT player Spencer Fano from Utah State did the odds start to favor Dallas (51%). McCoy is available 58% of the time and is the best combination of need and availability, but he needs to consider all of the above.
Once the NFL Combine is over, the Big Board is updated and new simulations can be run, we’ll know the impact this week has on the odds. But for now, it’s worth knowing that most people’s top goals are technically feasible, even if they’re unlikely to be achieved.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Early odds of Cowboys’ top draft target reaching 12
