While it was surprising to see the headlines late Monday night, it seemed easy to outline why the Los Angeles Clippers and James Harden might be heading to Splitville.
Look at Harden, who is still performing like an All-Star in ’17 but is about to turn 37 and only has a partially guaranteed player option to count on next season — and you see a guy looking for more long-term security. Take a look at Los Angeles’ books, in which only one player (Ivica Zubac) is guaranteed a non-rookie-level salary after next season, and you’ll see a team that may not be willing to grant this kind of multi-year re-upgrade as it prepares to clean things up in the summer of 2027 in search of a fresh start. It’s not hard to understand that when the parties involved want to go in different directions, then the party is over.
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[NBA trade deadline: The latest rumblings around the league]
What’s curious, though, is the other side of the reported potential deal. Why are the Cleveland Cavaliers — who ICYMI have won eight of their last 10 games and 13 of their last 18 games to move into a tie for fourth in the Eastern Conference, just two games behind the Knicks and Celtics and in second place behind Detroit — suddenly so keen on making a big push for Harden, one of the highest-usage, ball-handling players in the league… to put it next to theirs? own Supernova Donovan Mitchell in a high-usage, ball-handling offense…reportedly sacrificing two-time All-Star Darius Garland, who is more than a decade younger than Harden, in the process?
You can make a reasonable case for the player. While Garland is a more accurate shooter, Harden has been a more valuable player overall over the past five seasons — a more efficient scorer thanks to more 3-point attempts and free-throw attempts, and his assist-to-turnover ratio and rebounding rate are twice those of Garland.
The gap has widened significantly this season. Harden led the Clippers’ offense to a near-top-10 offense, averaging over 25 points and eight assists per game, which helped the Clippers make a dramatic turnaround in the season and move back into the playoff picture. On the other hand, Garland’s shooting efficiency has declined, his turnover rate has increased, and his overall impact has waned from last season’s All-Star bounce, due in large part to ongoing issues with his right big toe that have caused him to miss 25 games this season — and counting.
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The counterpoint to that is: Well, maybe Harden is a better player now, even at 36 years old. But Garland is 10 years younger and has two more seasons on his contract, more in line with the multi-year schedule the Cavaliers have been on since their “core four” of Mitchell, Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Why rush that timeline unnecessarily by raising the age by ten years for a player who might not even be on your team in two years?
One possible answer: Maybe the Cavs feel like this is actually Very There is a need to speed up that timeline…
…In fact, we’re already starting to operate that way.
Maybe you’re willing to trade the 10-year-old in a Garland-for-Harden deal — Cleveland is reportedly insisting on getting some draft capital back from the Clippers, which feels noteworthy since the Cavaliers don’t control their own first-round pick until 2030 — and you’re considering the possibility of releasing Allen on a three-year, $9,070 deal million dollar contract extension (which has yet to take effect), and you’re looking at Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis, and now Harden, because you’ve decided your runway isn’t as long as you thought. Maybe you’ve decided you can’t wait for your “core four” to get healthy and unite.
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Maybe you’re making these decisions because you feel you need to maximize Mitchell’s opportunity — he has a $53.8 million player option for 2027-28 that may only last two more years if you don’t take concerted action to ensure he wants to stay.
What is the first step in the process? Do whatever it takes to put together a roster that can make it to the second round of the playoffs — something Mitchell has yet to do in eight professional seasons, despite his personal success en route to six All-Star selections and two All-NBA selections. (Though you’re certainly entitled to wonder whether James Harden Mark Stein and Jack Fisher argue that it seems noteworthy that “people believe [Mitchell] I would welcome the addition of an experienced ball-handler like Harden to relieve him of some of the playmaking burden he’s been shouldering this season. “)
The Cavaliers have been universally successful as of late — three straight playoff berths, the league’s fourth-best winning percentage since the start of the 2022-23 season, and the team’s first playoff series win without LeBron James. since 1993 — an era that still carries the stain of disappointment and the weight of unmet expectations. Being bullied by the Knicks in the first round in 2023; being eliminated directly by the Celtics in the second round in 2024; last spring, he succumbed to the Pacers, the team of destiny; and now, from being a preseason favorite to entering the NBA Finals to struggling to exit the playoffs: all this has left a strong, spicy aftertaste.
If there are no excuses, there are at least explanations for these disappointments — chiefly that the Cavaliers generally don’t have a full complement of healthy bodies. (This year’s team has lost more players to injury than all but five teams, according to Spotrac, and starting small forward Max Strus is expected to still be suitably suited after offseason foot surgery.)
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Here’s the rub, though: The “core four” have played just 161 minutes combined in 13 games this season, and ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported Tuesday that while Garland is “making progress” and could be back from a recent toe sprain soon, there’s “some concern as to whether that will be the case.” [his foot] Injuries can be a long-term issue. Maybe those concerns influenced Cleveland’s first move in this trade cycle: trading small forward De’Andre Hunter for two guards, Keon Ellis and Dennis Schroder, in last weekend’s trade. Maybe that’s not all they were told.
Although The Inside Shot’s Danny Cunningham reported on Tuesday that Cleveland’s decision-makers “still believe in their core group of players and are more likely to make smaller moves around the edges,” there are still rumors that the Cavaliers are “looking around to see if they can do more” ahead of Thursday’s 3 p.m. ET deadline, with an eye toward cutting more salary to get onto the second floor, freeing up the opportunity to pool salaries in a trade to pursue some more aggressive moves. Get ready to catch up with Harden and Giannis — and, potentially, other Pretty big name in Northeast Ohio – definitely going to be called “more aggressive.”
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Since trading Mitchell ahead of the 2022-23 season, the Cavaliers have moved toward a coveted future — with Garland firmly establishing himself as a perennial All-Star, Mobley’s offensive prowess catching up to his Defensive Player of the Year honors on the other end, Allen connecting the starting blocks on both ends, and Mitchell shining as the kind of star who can be a superior offensive force in any seven-game series he’s in. Still, after years of bitter aftertaste and a 30-21 record, you can understand why the Cavaliers might feel pressure to make a decision not based on what they might be, but on what they are: a team with one of the true NBA’s best offensive players — a player who’s eligible for an extension this summer and who could be the belle of 2027 free agency if he’s not signed — and who has a lot of questions to answer beyond that.
