In less than two weeks, the anticipation and build-up to March Madness continues to build leading up to Selection Sunday. In the meantime, however, some bracket issues need to be addressed.
Aside from who might make it to the 68 teams outside the bubble, one of the most common topics of discussion heading into the final week of the regular season (yes, some mid-season big games start this week) is who will join Duke, Arizona and Michigan as the No. 1 seeds.
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A potentially deciding game will take place between No. 2 Arizona State and No. 5 Iowa State at 9 p.m. ET at the McKale Memorial Center in Tucson, Arizona.
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The Cyclones, led by their big three of Milan Momchilovic, Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey, are one of several teams remaining in the No. 1 seed, although their recent losses to BYU and Texas Tech have tempered their chances of earning the first No. 1 seed in program history.
But with time running out, Iowa State isn’t the only team seeking a spot in the final No. 1 seed.
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Here are USA TODAY Sports’ predictions on which teams can challenge for the final spot as the No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament:
March Madness bracket predictions: Who could be the eventual No. 1 seed?
University of Connecticut
UConn preserved its chances of retaining the No. 1 seed with a blowout victory over St. John’s last Wednesday — and the Huskies’ defense looks to be back on track, if not strengthened, after some leaks in recent weeks.
The Huskies have an impressive 8-2 record with four wins and one loss in four games, although they haven’t had much of a chance to get those wins in the Big East and this year’s record is down compared to seasons past. They had wins in the non-conference schedule against teams expected to play in the NCAA tournament at BYU, Illinois, Florida State, Texas and Kansas State, which will play on the road at Allen Fieldhouse, considered one of college basketball’s toughest environments.
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UConn is seeking its third national title in its last four NCAA tournaments under Dan Hurley, and man, they can really do it with a lineup that features Alex Karaban, Tarris Reed Jr., Silas Demary, Braylon Mullens and Solo Ball.
Florida
The No. 1 seed seemed out of reach for the Gators after going without a ranking game win in nonconference play, and then when they lost by nine points to unranked Auburn, Auburn now finds itself on the bubble and a top-four candidate. However, the loss to the Tigers appears to be a catalyst for Todd Golden’s team, as they have won 10 straight games, three of which came against ranked opponents in Alabama, Kentucky and Arkansas.
To move into the top tier, Florida State would likely still need to win the entire SEC Tournament, even though it ranks fourth in the NET rankings and has the third-most wins in four-1 games nationally with nine.
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Purdue University
According to Bart Tovik’s TourneyCast , Purdue is considered one of the closest rivals this week to UConn for the final seed. Stats.com has the Boilermakers with a 13.4% chance of earning the No. 1 seed and a 100% chance of earning the No. 2 seed entering Sunday.
However, after an 0-2 week against Michigan State and Ohio State (the latter of which is on the bubble), the Boilermakers’ chances and chance at a No. 1 seed now hang in the balance. Their eight Quad-1 wins are tied for fifth in the country.
Led by Brayden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Lane, Purdue has a chance to salvage a lackluster week at home against Wisconsin and wrap up the regular season next Sunday. If the Boilermakers beat the Badgers and clinch a spot in the Big Ten Tournament, they could find themselves back there and giving UConn a shot as the No. 1 seed.
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illinois
Illinois hasn’t been a No. 1 seed since the 2021 NCAA Tournament. That streak could continue this year, though its net ranking might suggest it should be in the No. 1 seed line.
The main reason is simple: The Illini haven’t helped matters in recent weeks. Since a 20-3 start, Illinois has gone 2-4 in its last six games, including three overtime losses to Michigan State, Wisconsin and UCLA, one of three teams in the bubble. While this is by no means a “bad loss” in terms of its impact on the resumption of the NCAA tournament, Illinois’ situation was recently dampened by Friday’s home loss to Michigan State.
If the Illini can pull off a Four-1 or Four-2 win or two (or a few) in the recent stretch, their situation heading into the Big Ten Tournament will look much better. But alas, Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast gives Illinois a 10.8% chance of earning the No. 1 seed (as of Thursday, February 26).
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Iowa
Iowa State moved into the top 16 of the season for the first time in the NCAA Tournament seeding round on Saturday, February 21, as the school moved ahead of UConn in the NCAA selection committee in hopes of dominating the NET’s top 8 rankings to secure the final No. 1 seed.
After the Cyclones’ recent losses to BYU and Texas Tech, the No. 1 seed now looks no longer a match for the Cyclones. Games against the Cougars and Red Raiders were beneficial wins for the Cyclones, as they were both considered quarterfinal chances. Entering the final week of the regular season, Iowa State has just six Quad-1 wins, the fewest among the NET’s top 10 teams.
Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast gives Iowa State a 3.1% chance of earning the No. 1 seed (as of Sunday, March 1). So it’s safe to say that Iowa State’s chances of saving a No. 1 seed really depend on how Monday’s game against Arizona goes.
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Houston
Houston is desperately fighting for the final No. 1 seed. The Cougars’ recent three-game losing streak has taken a big hit to their chances of a No. 1 seed, and they don’t have much of a chance to salvage it before the Big 12 Tournament.
Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast gives Houston a 7.5% chance of earning the No. 1 seed (as of Sunday, March 1).
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness Predictions: Who will be the final No. 1 seed in the bracket?
