Each week during the 2025-26 NBA season, we’ll take a deeper look at some of the league’s biggest storylines, trying to determine whether future trends are based more on fact or fiction.
last week: NBA’s response is enough to curb its tanking epidemic
Fact or fiction: The NBA MVP award is up for grabs
In my opinion, Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is the best basketball player in the world and will likely win his fourth NBA MVP award in six seasons.
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He probably deserved it last season too. He leads the league in rebounds and assists per game while also leading the league in scoring. This is unprecedented. And his team, plagued by injuries, still maintained its home seeding in the Western Conference playoffs.
That’s not meant to take anything away from the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who won MVP honors last season before leading the team to an NBA championship and adding a Finals MVP trophy to his collection. As a scoring machine and the clear leader of the defending champions, he is once again a clear candidate.
The top two bettors for the award will meet on Friday at 9:30 pm ET on ESPN.
However, if Jokic misses two more games this season, he will not be eligible for MVP, as rules require players to play in at least 65 games to be eligible for the award. Likewise, SGA just missed nine consecutive games with an abdominal strain, and he’s one step closer to missing out on a chance at back-to-back MVP honors.
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If that’s the case, then San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama, one of the best defenders in the game and a solid offensive player, would also be a good option for a team chasing Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder.
Then again, he also missed 14 games. Now, we can be outraged by the 65-game rule, which was implemented to encourage players to play 80 percent of the regular season, or we can accept it and appreciate that it guides us in ways we wouldn’t normally imagine.
Speaking of how we usually think: ESPN’s MVP Straw Poll tracks the tendencies of a 100-person media panel at the end of the season a few times a year, which can lead to some groupthink among voters. Think about it: On March 30, 2023, Joel Embiid narrowly beat Jokić in the polls despite receiving fewer first-place votes; two weeks later, when the official tally came, Embiid had received 73 of 100 possible first-place votes. Trends follow narratives.
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SGA has extended its lead over Jokic in the latest poll. We can see where things are going.
But what if neither Jokic nor SGA are eligible? Each voter may have to dig deeper into his or her own thoughts about what is valuable among the many worthy candidates.
Sometimes it’s the best player on the best team, as was the case last season at SGA. Other times it’s the best players today, which is what happened when Jokic won three of four seasons. Or the group makes a statistical case for others, like Embiid did.
Think about recent MVPs. James Harden is a statistical monster and a great player on a great team. Russell Westbrook is a force of nature. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a combination of both. Stephen Curry has led us all through several seasons.
Maybe that’s what SGA and Jokic are doing now. They’re 1-2 in each of the last seven ESPN polls. That’s the beauty of MVP. It can be anything you want, most of the time we know what it is when we see it, but what if we don’t see it in 65 games?
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This presents a real conundrum for voters, who are so used to having Jokic and SGA ranked in the top two that they may have to make adjustments if neither crosses the threshold. But even if SGA and Jokic qualify, someone can make a solid case with a larger sample size, and they have six weeks to make their case.
Seriously, how much value is availability? A lot, right? Isn’t this why the NBA implemented the 65-game rule? Then again, voters were smart enough to consider games before the 65-game rule, and they’re smart enough now to weigh whether Jokic and SGA are eligible. So, let’s add some spice to an already outdated debate.
After all, are the extra games played by Cade Cunningham more valuable to the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons (who currently statistically have the best record in the NBA) than everything SGA has done for the Thunder this season? One voter in an ESPN poll thought so.
But if the Pistons move forward, more may be on the way. Last year’s voting was for the best player on the best team, not the person with the best statistics or considered the best player in the world. Who’s to say the best player on this season’s best team isn’t Cunningham? Even if SGA is still eligible, maybe he should get more consideration.
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Heck, Wembanyama’s Spurs can top both the Pistons and Thunder, and then what? We might actually have to admit that defense is half the game. Or come up with a new definition of MVP, which seems to me to be something we do every other season.
What about Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics? Although they lost several key contributors from their 2024 championship team, including perennial MVP candidate Jayson Tatum, his leadership on and off the court kept them in contention. Considering there are no other All-Stars around Brown, what Brown has done for Boston this season may be more valuable than anything anyone else has done for his team.
Do you want to prove that Luka Doncic or Donovan Mitchell enjoyed a better statistical season than Cunningham or Brown? If that’s what you’re looking for in value, go for it.
Anthony Edwards is probably more talented than any of them. This argument was also made. Make any case you want. However, don’t automatically put Jokic and SGA first just because that’s how the rivalry has been for more than two seasons.
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Again, I think Jokic is the best candidate, I think he’s the best player and puts up the best numbers for a team that I believe can compete when healthy. But I may have to rethink my own situation. Is Jokic 10% better than everyone else? Because another player might have a 10 percent higher availability rate than Jokic, which makes any debate interesting.
I’m just saying: This game is far from over. We may have to get creative with how we define value, especially if the 65-game rule forces us to do so, and isn’t that the fun part? We enter the sports world partly to debate all this but also to compete, and in this year’s MVP chase, both are in full swing. SGA and Jokic still have plenty of time to prove that starting Friday when Cunningham’s Pistons host Mitchell’s Cleveland Cavaliers.
What a great league this is, with so many worthy MVP candidates.
Determination: Facts. The NBA MVP award is up for grabs.
