Experts warn that Iranian attacks on Saudi oil, water and diplomatic sites have crossed a key red line, forcing Riyadh to consider retaliatory action in response to concerns about a wider regional escalation.
The kingdom now stands on the brink of open war with Tehran following Iranian missile and drone attacks on Saudi oil depots, desalination plants and the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh. While Riyadh has long sought to avoid direct confrontation, the nature of Iran’s artillery fire has crossed a critical “red line,” making a Saudi military response not just possible but likely, Middle East experts said.
Yet the Saudi leadership, on the one hand, is angry at the violation of sovereignty and on the other hand realizes that it may be entering a conflict with no clear exit strategy.
Bernard Haykel, professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute jerusalem post Saudi Arabia’s calculations have fundamentally shifted as Iran targets critical civilian infrastructure.
Saudi red line
Haeckel explained that Riyadh had previously issued a specific warning to Tehran: If Saudi Arabia remains neutral during the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, its infrastructure must remain off-limits.
“The Iranians did tell the Saudis that if they faced an existential attack from Israel and/or the United States, they would attack Saudi Arabia,” Haeckel said. “So the Saudis said, if you do that and we remain neutral, we will join forces with the Americans to attack you.”
The fact that Iran has attacked the energy and water sectors seems to have satisfied the conditions.
“Saudi Arabia’s red line is that if civilian facilities, oil facilities, desalination facilities, power generation or communications are attacked, Saudi Arabia will attack Iran, and that is what is happening now,” Haeckel said. “Now the Saudis are thinking about what to do and whether they should fight back.”
Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia and now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the attack may have been a deliberate provocation.
“My sense is that the Iranians are either subtly or deliberately, I don’t know which, seeming to be encouraging the Saudis to join this fight,” Ratni said.
Ratni confirmed that the attacks on the U.S. embassy and other sites “violated Saudi sovereignty” and “profoundly angered them” but said the kingdom’s response may be tempered by fears of uncontrollable chaos.
“I think they’re going to be cautious about their retaliation because they know it means they have to deal with an unknown level of escalation,” Ratney said. Post. “I think they knew it was a possibility (an Iranian attack) and I don’t think they were shocked because they thought it was always a big risk in a military confrontation with Iran.”
The hesitation to launch a full-scale counterattack stems from Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation plan, which relies heavily on stability to attract tourism and foreign investment, but which is now at risk.
“Given the state of their economies, given the vulnerability of their energy infrastructure, given the message this sends to international investors and tourists, I think their biggest concerns are instability, violence and uncertainty,” Ratney noted.
The Kingdom cannot stand alone
However, strategic realities in the Gulf suggest that the Kingdom cannot stand alone. Haeckel noted that despite “structural” tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the current crisis will force the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to adopt a unified defense posture.
“Of course they will work together because they have a common enemy,” Haeckel said. “They are being attacked by the same people.”
Ultimately, experts agree that while Saudi Arabia may feel the need to retaliate to restore deterrence, they are terrified of the end result. Unlike Israel, which sees the collapse of the Islamic Republic as a security victory, Saudi Arabia sees it as a demographic nightmare.
“They feared state failure,” Haeckel explains. “They don’t want a failed state next door with 92 million people. To me it seems normal when you’re next to Iran and Israel is a thousand kilometers away, but it doesn’t care.”
Ratni agreed, stressing that Riyadh’s restraint – even when its oil depots were attacked – was due to a lack of post-conflict planning by its Western allies.
“They’re nervous about what’s going to happen next,” Ratney said. “I think that’s especially true because it’s not clear whether the United States or Israel has a clear vision for what’s next.”
