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Despite the requirements In terms of sustainability, due to various reasons, the market share of automobiles will be controlled by internal combustion engine () -driven vehicles for at least years, the main reason being the lack of supporting charging infrastructure across the country.

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According to research by IHS Markit, for infrastructure issues that are still being addressed, the high cost of electric vehicles, and the OEM's focus on the electric two-wheeler and commercial vehicle ecosystem, by 2030, the share of such vehicles will reach 4%. In the past few years, the Indian automotive market has sold more than 3 million vehicles.

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A study by Crisil Research shows that by 2024, 43-48% of new tricycles (excluding electric rickshaws) sold in India and 12-17% of new two-wheelers will be sold But four-wheelers may be less attractive, with only 5% of new sales being electric cars.

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Shailesh Chandra, President of Electric Vehicle and Corporate Strategy He said that by extending the private sector's FAME (Fast Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles) incentives to those cars below its quality, adoption of electric vehicles can be tracked quickly. "The personal segment is seven to eight times larger than the fleet segment, so even if the personal segment has a lower penetration rate, it will unlock another potential for electrification," Chandra said.

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The had earlier proposed ambitious targets, with 15% of all vehicles to electric by 2022, and 100% electrification of cars by 2030, but these goals are likely to be unachievable unless other variables are considered . One of them is infrastructure including charging. For the foreseeable future, stations and power outlets will be limited to private homes and office parks. "The lack of charging infrastructure is an obstacle to India's of electric vehicles," said Mahesh Babu, CEO of Mahindra Electric.

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IHS Markit chief analyst (powertrain forecast) Suraj Ghosh said that the ratio of traditional gas stations is one gas station / 100 vehicles, while the ratio of CNG launched 15 years ago is one gas station / 2000 vehicles. "Building power infrastructure does not happen overnight, and unless that happens on a larger scale, most customers will hesitate," he said. "In terms of refueling and cost efficiency, prices, price ranges and Convenience must be equal. "

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Another factor is the residual value. Given technological leaps and cultural values, consumers will be used to driving cars for decades, and how to resell electric cars in five years. Manufacturers provide -term warranty on the battery for up to 8 years, but this may take some time to catch up.

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Large-scale adoption will require a large number of EV models at various price points, which can solve multiple use cases. "The products recently released by mainstream car manufacturers show a clear intent to locate electric cars for individual buyers, and as more options become available and as charging infrastructure reaches a critical level, this may Create an inflection point for the adoption of cars in three years, "Chandra said.

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Babu predicts that demand for personal electric vehicles will accelerate in the next three to six years. "We think that in about five to six years, the cost of an electric car is comparable to an ICE (internal combustion engine) car, and there will be huge demand in the personal market."

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Kavan Mukhtyar, a partner and head of PricewaterhouseCoopers, said a major shift to electrification would take at least five years. "Fleet operators will be transferred first, and this has already happened," he said. Companies such as Lithium City Technologies, Bangalore, have launched Mahindra car electric fleets for employee transportation and have also established services in the NCR area. On the same track. "The idea is to grow a small fleet operator and expand the use of niche electric vehicles from the ," Mukhtiar said.

Market share: 4%

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Year: 2030

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Factors: supply chain issues, high costs, immature infrastructure, focus on resumes, two Wheeler

Market share: 9%

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Year: 2030

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Factors: high oil prices, fleet regulations, OEM mergers, lower battery costs

Market share: 16%

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Year: 2030

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Factors: Chinese government support, taxi conversion, mature supply chain, lower registration costs

Source: IHS Markit

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Falling electric vehicle battery prices could mean that market share could climb to 15% by 2030. "There is a consumer who wants to adopt the product soon and buy environmentally friendly products, and the price of BS VI is already rising. The price of traditional cars is higher, so the gap will to narrow."

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What role does product performance play in the development of electric vehicles. "Range is not an issue. Most of the electric vehicle products exhibited at the recent Auto Expo claim to travel 300 kilometers, which is enough to meet the needs of the Indian metro," Mukhtiar said.

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From the perspective of OEMs, sustainability will determine the development of electric vehicle roads, as it requires serious partnerships, a new engineering approach, especially in battery engineering, and imminent high capital costs . "These are long-term decisions that any automaker must make very carefully, because their survival will depend on it," Gosh said.