Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq sink while oil prices jump as Iran attacks jolt markets

U.S. stocks plummeted and oil prices soared on Monday as the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran and then launched counterattacks, sending shockwaves to global markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 1.1%, or just over 500 points. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell about 1.1% as escalating conflict in the Middle East prompted a retreat from risk assets.

For investors already nervous about the stock market backdrop, the impact on oil prices and even inflation is top of mind. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) ended February in negative territory as another wave of volatility in artificial intelligence and software names roiled the market.

Oil prices rose on Monday, with Brent crude futures (BZ=F) surging 13% to above $82 a barrel, but gains slowed to fall below $80 at last check. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (CL=F) were trading just under $73, up about 8%. Although Iran is OPEC’s fourth-largest oil producer, markets are also bracing for continued disruption in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic has come to a standstill.

Shares of energy giant Exxon Mobil (XOM) are rising in pre-market trading. And defense stocks including Lockheed Martin (LMT) have also found buyers. But travel-related stocks fell, with Delta Air Lines (DAL) down nearly 6%.

Elsewhere in the market, gold (GC=F) jumped above $5,400 an ounce despite gains in the dollar (DX-Y.NYB) as JPMorgan said it expected the precious metal’s “risk premium” to rise as much as 10%. Treasury yields (^TNX) moved higher as markets trimmed bets on rate cuts on the prospect of higher inflation.

The next key input into interest rate calculations will be released on Friday with the release of the monthly jobs report. Economists expect U.S. jobs to have been added by 60,000 jobs in February, down from a stronger-than-expected 130,000 job gain in January, easing fears of a recession.

live 18 updates

  • Jared Brickell

    Stocks open higher, crude oil, gold, dollar rise

    As we wait for stocks to open, the U.S. dollar (DX-Y.NYB) and gold futures (GC=F) are both seeing bids – a reminder that cash and gold can rise together as investors scramble for safe-haven assets.

    In addition to gold (and to a limited extent silver), crude oil is also surging. WTI (CL=F) was weighed down by clear supply risk concerns related to geopolitics and dragged energy stocks higher, even as most sectors opened in the red.

    What’s changing: Long-term Treasury yields (^TNX, ^TYX) are surging as bonds are being sold rather than bought. This is because investors demand additional returns for long-term risk (the so-called term premium), coupled with systematic strategies to reduce long-term (duration) risk exposure as volatility rises.

    Geopolitical shocks typically fade quickly in markets, but some linger. Watch to see if the Cboe Volatility Index (^VIX) is above 20, a measure of institutional hedging demand (read: uneasiness).

  • Nvidia invests $4 billion in Coherent and Lumentum to advance next-generation AI data centers

    Nvidia (NVDA) said it on Monday entered into two strategic partnerships with photonics companies Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE) to develop and secure access to state-of-the-art optical technologies for next-generation artificial intelligence data centers.

    Nvidia shares fell 1.2% in pre-market trading after the announcement, while Coherent shares rose about 8% and Lumentum shares soared more than 7%.

    Nvidia agreed to invest $2 billion in Coherent to support the company’s future operations as it expands its U.S. manufacturing capabilities. As part of the agreement, Nvidia made a multi-billion-dollar purchase commitment and received future rights to advanced laser and optical networking products.

    The Santa Clara-based company also announced a similar partnership with Lumentum and a $2 billion investment to support research and development and build new fabs in the United States.

    Nvidia has been rapidly expanding its networking business and is betting that the relatively small photonics industry can help it improve the energy efficiency of large-scale artificial intelligence networks, thereby reducing bottlenecks in artificial intelligence growth.

    “Computing has fundamentally changed,” NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement. “In the age of AI, software runs on intelligence and AI factories generate tokens in real time for every interaction and every situation. NVIDIA, in partnership with Coherent, is pioneering the next generation of silicon photonics technology to enable AI infrastructure at unprecedented scale, speed and energy efficiency.”

  • Morgan Stanley’s Wilson says Iran unlikely to weaken bullish view

    From Bloomberg:

    Morgan Stanley strategists believe that unless oil prices rise significantly and sustainably, the outbreak of conflicts in Iran and the Middle East is unlikely to affect their bullish view on U.S. stocks.

    Geopolitical risk events have not historically resulted in sustained volatility in U.S. stocks, a team led by Mike Wilson wrote in a note, citing the average performance of the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) in the months following such events.

    Strategists say the reason for pessimism regarding the latest conflict with Iran stems from a sharp and sustained rise in oil prices, which could undermine what strategists see as a strengthening of the economic cycle.

    “Barring a historic surge in oil prices that remains elevated, recent events are unlikely to change our bullish view on U.S. equities over the next 6-12 months,” they wrote.

    Read more here.

  • Jenny McCall

    Trending stocks premarket: Norwegian Cruise Line, Berkshire Hathaway Airlines and American Airlines

    Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) The stock fell 7% before the market opened on Monday. The cruise line reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ expectations, but the group’s shares fell as investors worried that rising oil prices would drive up fuel costs. Royal Caribbean (RCL) The stock also fell 5% in pre-market trading today.

    Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) The stock fell 1% in premarket hours following the release of fourth-quarter earnings on Saturday. Berkshire’s after-tax operating profit fell 30% from a year ago.

    American Airlines (Asian Airlines Association) Shares fell 5% in premarket trading on Monday as rising oil prices stoked investor concerns about rising fuel costs.

  • Jenny McCall

    Gold surges above $5,400 as demand for safe-haven assets surges amid Iran conflict

    Gold futures (GC=F) rose on Monday, trading above $5,400 an ounce, as ongoing conflict in the Middle East caused investors to turn to safe-haven assets.

    Yahoo Finance’s Ines Ferré reports:

    Read more here.

  • Treasuries retreat as inflation worries outweigh safe-haven buying

    The 10-year Treasury yield is rising along with broader U.S. bond yields even as the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict stokes risk aversion.

    From Bloomberg:

    Read more here.

  • Jenny McCall

    Dollar gains as soaring oil prices dampen Fed rate cut bets

    The U.S. dollar (DX=F) gained against other currencies as high oil prices led investors to believe the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates soon.

    Bloomberg News reports:

    Read more here.

  • Jenny McCall

    Tesla gains market share in France, Norway in February

    Tesla ( TSLA ) gained market share again in France and Norway in February, official data showed, a sign that sales in Europe were stabilizing after two years of decline. Tesla shares fell 2% before the market opened on Monday.

    Reuters reports:

    Read more here.

  • Jenny McCall

    Iran attack rocks markets, defense stocks rise, airlines fall

    Airlines, hotels and defense stocks all rose on Monday as investors began to react to the conflict with Iran. Lockheed Martin (LMT) shares were up 7% in pre-market trading on Monday, while RTX (RTX) shares were also higher. BAE Systems (BA.L) shares rose 5% in London.

    Energy companies also saw gains, with New Fortress Energy (NFE) rising 15% in pre-market trading. Oil major Equinor ASA (EQNR) rose 4%.

    Bloomberg News reports:

    Read more here.

  • Brian Sozzi

    Gold prices before and after previous Middle East wars

    Gold (GC=F) prices rose strongly this morning to over $5,400 an ounce.

    A helpful chart from JPMorgan shows how gold prices have reacted to previous conflicts in the Middle East:

  • Brian Sozzi

    JPMorgan assesses upside risks to oil prices

    The J.P. Morgan team believes that if the war spreads throughout the Middle East, oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices have the potential to rise to $120 per barrel:

  • Brian Sozzi

    Yahoo Finance early trends following US attack on Iran

    Not surprisingly, the most visited stock pages on Yahoo Finance this morning include Exxon Mobil (XOM), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Chevron (CVX) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY).

    You can view the full list of names here.

    EvercoreISI provides some helpful charts on major oil exposures.

  • Brian Sozzi

    Where Goldman Sachs thinks oil prices are headed

    Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices surged this morning following the US attack on Iran.

    Goldman Sachs thinks prices may still have a lot of room to rise:

  • Brian Sozzi

    Goldman Sachs enters market in epic fury move

    Here’s how Goldman Sachs sees markets after US attack on Iran:

  • Jenny McCall

    Trump pushes for leadership change in Iran, but Tehran remains defiant

    President Trump said on Sunday that the bombing campaign against Iran would continue for weeks and called on Tehran’s leaders to surrender. But Iran’s security chief said he had no intention of negotiating with the United States.

    Explosions continued in Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, and Gulf states intercepted missiles launched by Iran in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli attacks, a sign that the war is spreading beyond Iran’s borders. The conflict has entered its third day since U.S. and Israeli forces began launching air strikes against Iran last weekend.

    Trump has called on Iran’s leaders to hand over power to the country’s people, and “The Atlantic” said Trump has agreed to dialogue with Iran’s new leadership.

    Bloomberg News reports:

    Read more here.

  • Middle East attacks send Bitcoin falling below $67,000

    Yahoo Finance’s Ines Ferré reports:

    Read more here.

  • Gold prices rise as instability in the Middle East prompts investors to turn to safe-haven assets

    Bloomberg reports:

    Read more here.

  • Oil prices soar as Iran attacks shock global markets

    Yahoo Finance’s Jack Conley reports:

    Read more here.

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