There is no convenient script, no precedent for the toxic economic consequences of COVID-19, this is the only foreseeable get out It is now unpredictable. With the upsurge of the virus forcing new public restrictions (including in California, the largest auto market in the United States), any car recovery seems likely to follow the same bumpy route.
Analysts say that the worst may be over. But they are not sure. The pandemic caused car sales to fall to a 30-year low in April, when Americans bought only 633,000 cars, a 53% drop from April 2019 and worse than any sales month in the 2009 Great Depression.
June brings some hope. However, the annual sales rate in June was 12.9 million units, still a clear reminder of the 17.2 million units in June of the previous year. Second quarter sales General Motors, Ford Fiat Chrysler fell 30% or more. TeslaThe share price has fallen by only 5% (the share price has risen six times since May 2019), which shows that it can weather the storm better than traditional automakers.
Dealers have no choice but to continue their efforts. Galpin Motors, one of the largest cars in California Dealer The group is recovering from the brutal May, and May sales plummeted 88%.
However, Galpin president and chief operating officer Beau Boeckmann said that because Galpin stood out in front of online purchases, storage and car disinfection (including electrostatic atomizers used to kill viruses), annual sales fell only by about 10%. Other strategies to reassure consumers.
“We are still underperforming, but it is strange that some brands have recovered well,” including the signature Ford Distributorship Los Angeles is the world’s largest city in terms of sales in the past three decades, with a year-on-year growth in June.
Bokman said that because of fate and confidence, the difference between people who work hard and those who don’t have made predictions more difficult.
“That’s two distinct groups of consumers,” Bokman said. “(Unemployed) positions will eventually be hired again and they can become buyers next year.
“But I completely agree with the analysis of the “Hill Road”. No one dared to predict the rest of 2020. Too much damage has occurred.”
After receiving a telephone interview, Boeckmann was on his way to Santa Monica and opened Galpin’s 11th car brand, which is VolvoThe new Polestar. This seems to be a difficult breakthrough: a fledgling electric car brand has been forced into a pandemic. However, Boeckman sees reasons for cautious optimism, including continuing to provide “free money” in the form of 0% or low-interest loans.
He said: “A lot will depend on the transaction.” “The other is, “How do I shop safely?” “”
Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, said that despite some unexpected gains, consumer confidence is still far below pre-pandemic levels. More than 19 million Americans are officially unemployed, and more unemployment benefits will expire in July. Despite the appropriate reopening of the economy, the long-term prospects for consumers are not optimistic.
“Faced with an uncertain, uneven recovery path, and a potential COVID-19 resurrection, it is too early to say that consumers have turned their crises into peace and are ready to start spending before the pandemic,” Franco said.
IHS Markit now predicts that sales in 2020 will fall to 13.2 million vehicles, which is far from the pre-pandemic forecast of 16.8 million vehicles, but stronger than the 10.3 million vehicles in 2009. Stephanie Brinley, chief automotive analyst at IHS Markit, said the recovery will be slow and healthy. The company predicts that by 2024, annual sales will not return to 16 million, not to mention the regular booming level of 17 million.
Brinley said: “Compared with three months ago, our prospects are more optimistic, but the reality is the market decline and economic recession.” “We will not recover to 17 million units for a long time.”
Brinley said that many Americans drive less often at home, so there is no need for them to replace their current cars.
Brinley said: “You don’t have to drive to a football practice field or school because there is no football practice field or school.”
The surge in COVID in Sunbelt State has dampened consumers’ motivation to use light. Buy a new car, The analyst said.
Brinley said: “As long as we continue to pay attention to the increase in cases, it will increase uncertainty.” “The longer consumers stay in the uncertain space, the more difficult it is to eliminate them.”
Wards Intelligence said that as spring automakers want to prevent a flood of unsold vehicles in the hands of dealers, due to the spring plant closure, dealership inventory has fallen to the lowest level in nine years. Efforts to contain the Mexican pandemic could result in US automakers closing factories or shortages of parts. Boeckmann said these lingering production problems will have a knock-on effect on dealer supply, leading to a shortage of supply for certain models-possibly including super-large pickup trucks.
Bokman said: “The dealer may run out of an SUV, but not.”
In stark contrast to the “Great Depression”, when automakers tried their best to keep factories in trouble, companies avoided over-reliance regardless of the harm to long-term profits. rebate Artificially promote sales. Brinley said that automakers may not focus on payment protection programs and other non-cash incentives to reassure anxious consumers instead of putting more and more money on the hood. Several major automakers, including some hard-learned automakers, including General Motors and Chrysler -Lay the foundation to ensure that they can make profits even at declining sales levels that once threatened their viability.
Brinley said: “Incentives are part of our world, but they are doing it in a more cautious and pragmatic way.” In this pandemic, automakers seem willing to take immediate action to make the other party become More powerful.
“This does not mean that automakers will not lose money this year. But they don’t necessarily look at increasing incentives to attract you.”