BTC price looks resilient, but don’t ignore those $20,000 put options: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times Eastern unless otherwise noted)

The extremely pessimistic forecast didn’t go over well with industry observers, and neither did Bitcoin Bitcoin$69,873.58 Remaining resilient amid global market disruptions. Yet options flow suggests the bears’ dire warnings may have merit.

Bloomberg reiterated its prediction that the largest cryptocurrency will fall to $10,000 – a level last seen in mid-2020. Industry observers thought this was folly.

However, on Deribit, the largest cryptocurrency options exchange, there is nearly $800 million in open interest in $20,000 puts, betting that the price will fall below that level. This is the fourth most popular bearish bet on the platform.

This suggests some traders are bracing for a crash. Still, not all investments are direct bets on a price collapse, Deribit said.

“The majority of the positions appear to be short puts rather than directional long hedges,” said Sidrah Fariq, global head of retail sales at Deribit. “Traders often sell very far out-of-the-money puts because the likelihood of reaching these levels is low.”

But at the same time, Bitcoin has shown incredible resilience, holding steady around $70,000 despite another surge in oil prices, pushing the crude benchmark towards $100 earlier today and disrupting traditional markets. Ethereum (ETH), XRP and solana (SOL) were also strong, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE token stole the show, rising around 10% in 24 hours.

Analysts say excessive leverage is draining away from Bitcoin, paving the way for Bitcoin to rise.

Diana Pires, vice president of sales at crypto platform sFOX, said in an email: “This type of consolidation can be constructive from a market structure perspective, as reducing leveraged positions tends to create a more stable basis for the next move once clearer macro catalysts emerge.”

In traditional markets, oil volatility appears to be spreading to bonds. The MOVE index, which measures the 30-day expected volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds that underpin global finance, has soared to 76 from less than 60 at the end of February. This could lead to a global financial squeeze, putting pressure on risk assets. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market

What to see

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• cryptocurrency
  • March 12: Polakdot economic upgrades begin rolling out, including DOT supply caps, emission reductions, and unconstrained emission reductions.
  • March 12, 1pm: MARA will host an X Spaces meeting with its CEO, CFO and Chief Growth and Strategy Officer.
  • March 12: BOB mainnet will undergo a Jovian hard fork.
• Macro
  • March 12, 8:30 a.m. ET: 215K initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 (previously 213K)
  • March 12, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. January trade balance – $66.6B (previously – $70.3B)
  • March 12, 4:30 pm: Fed balance sheet for the period ended March 11 (previous value $6.63T)
• income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
  • March 12: Cango (CANG), post-market, -$0.34

Token event

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Governance votes and calls
  • The Arbitrum DAO is voting on an operating directive to automatically consolidate idle and remaining non-ARB funds in the DAO program directly into the Arbitrum Treasury Management Company (ATMC) portfolio. Voting closes on March 12.
  • The Arbitrum DAO is voting to implement the Delegated Voting Power (DVP) quorum model, update its charter, and enable on-chain proposal cancellation. Voting closes on March 12.
  • The CoW DAO is voting on a swap affiliate program to reward affiliates who refer new retail traders and traders who reach qualifying volume milestones, with allocations of up to 500,000 USDC over a six-month pilot. Voting closes on March 12.
  • World Liberty Financial DAO is voting to introduce the WLFI governance staking system, requiring unlocked token holders to stake (locked for at least 180 days) to participate in governance. Voting closes on March 12.
• Unlock
  • March 12: Aptos easy$0.9268 Unlocks 0.69% of circulating supply, worth $11.21 million
• Token issuance
  • March 12: ForU AI (FORU) token generation event occurs.

Meeting

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

market trend

• BTC was up 0.12% at $70,400.41 as of 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday. (24 hours: +1.11%)
• ETH remains unchanged at $2,071.35 (24 hours: +2.21%)
• CoinDesk 20 fell 0.4% to 2,008.02 (24 hours: +1.32%)
• The comprehensive pledge rate of Ethereum CESR dropped by 1 basis point to 2.79%
• The BTC financing interest rate on Binance is -0.0048% (annualized -5.2188%)

• DXY unchanged at 99.36
• Gold futures rose 0.43% to $5,189.60
• Silver futures rose 2.38% to $87.09
• The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.04% at 54,452.96 points
• The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.70% at 25,716.76 points
• The FTSE 100 fell 0.33% to 10,320.02
• The Stoxx Europe 50 index fell 0.43% to 5,769.83
• The Dow closed down 0.61% on Wednesday at 47,417.27 points
• The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,775.80 points
• The Nasdaq Composite Index closed unchanged at 22,716.13 points
• The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 0.45% at 33,119.80 points
• The S&P 40 Latin America Index ended unchanged at 7,501.64 points
• The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate rose 7 basis points to 4.21%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures fell 0.38% to 6,753.75
• E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.35% to 24,896.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.48% to 47,221.00

Bitcoin Statistics

• Bitcoin dominance: 59.23% (-0.08%)
• Ethereum-Bitcoin ratio: 0.02929 (0.2%)
• Hash rate (seven-day moving average): 1,020 EH/s
• Hash price (spot): $30.46
• Total fee: 2.8 BTC / $196,480
• CME Futures Open Interest: 108,220 BTC
• BTC in gold: 13.5 ounces.
• Bitcoin and gold market capitalization: 4.67%

technical analysis

• This chart shows XRP’s daily price swings in candlestick format with Bollinger Bands located two standard deviations above and below the 20-day price average.
• The gap between Bollinger Bands is currently the narrowest since early November 2024.
• The tighter the band, the more explosive the final breakthrough. In other words, XRP may be brewing a big move (volatility).

crypto stocks

• Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Wednesday at $198.63 (+1.07%), closed at $196.08 pre-market –1.28%
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $21.46 (–1.69%), -0.75% at $21.30
• MARA Holdings (MARA): Closed at $8.55 (–0.23%), –1.40% at $8.43
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $14.81 (+1.16%), –0.74% at $14.70
• Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $16.54 (+6.99%), –1.45% at $16.30
• CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $9.81 (+1.87%), –1.22% at $9.69
• Exodus Sports (EXOD): Closed at $10.91 (–0.18%), +14.48% Closed at $12.49
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): Closed at $38.92 (+4.18%), –2.29% to close at $38.03
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Closed at $112.81 (–4.47%), +0.30% at $113.15
• Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $37.19 (+1.25%), –1.05% at $36.80

Cryptocurrency Treasury Corporation

• Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $138.33 (–0.09%), –0.56% at $137.55
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): Closed at $9.23 (+2.78%)
• SharpLink (SBET): Closed at $7.59 (+2.71%), –1.45% at $7.48
• Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $1.03 (+9.46%), –1.94% at $1.01
• Lite Strategy (LITS): Closed at $1.17 (+0.00%), –1.71% Closed at $1.15

ETF flows

Spot BTC ETF

• Net daily traffic: $115.2 million
• Cumulative net flow: $55.88 billion
• Total BTC holdings are approximately 1.28 million

Spot ETH ETF

• Net daily traffic: $57 million
  Cumulative net flow: $11.68 billion
  The total amount of ETH held is approximately 5.65 million.

Source: Farside Investors

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