Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s happening in the market:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, your daily digest of the top news from the U.S. and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US market, see CoinDesk’s Americas Crypto Diary.
Bitcoin is about to enter the Asian trading day, with on-chain data flashing full bear market signals, prices hovering around $70,000, and global stock markets continuing to search for direction.
CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report sees this weakness as structural rather than cyclical, with its Bull Score index at zero and Bitcoin trading well below its October peak. The report believes that the market is no longer pricing in gains but is operating with a reduced buyer base and tighter liquidity.
Data from Glassnode reinforced this scenario, pointing to weak spot volumes and a demand vacuum that prevented selling pressure from being sustained. In fact, the problem is not so much panic as engagement.
Institutional mobility highlights this shift. The U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF, which was a net accumulator this time last year, has transformed into a net seller, creating a year-over-year demand gap of tens of thousands of Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium has been negative since October, suggesting that despite lower prices, U.S. investors are not meaningfully involved. Historically, sustained bull market phases have coincided with strong U.S. physical demand. The engine is currently idling.
Liquidity conditions are also tightening beneath the surface. Stablecoin expansion, which typically fuels risk appetite and trading activity, has stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023.
Long-term apparent demand growth has also fallen sharply from last year’s highs, suggesting it’s not just leverage being washed away but participation itself falling. Technically, Bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with major on-chain valuation support in the $70,000 to $60,000 range.
Beyond that, there’s the macro backdrop of Bitcoin behaving more and more like high-beta software than digital gold. Forecast markets show traders are still heavily leaning toward no changes at the Fed’s April meeting, while expectations for a rate cut in June are not high. This hesitation limits prospects for short-term liquidity relief.
Policy narratives are further complicated by politics. U.S. President Donald Trump recently spoke to the media about his Fed nominee Kevin Warsh, saying in an interview with NBC News that a Fed chair who wants to raise interest rates “is not going to get the job,” comments that tempered earlier optimism about the central bank’s independence.
For Asia, the result is that the market is no longer affected, but absent, and the possibility of a rebound remains, but confidence remains weak.
market trend
Bitcoin: Bitcoin fell to around $70,000 after briefly testing support, but the rebound quickly faded as spot demand remained weak and technology stocks remained under pressure.
Ethereum: Ethereum is hovering above the low $2,000s, struggling to build momentum as broader risk sentiment weakens and flows on major exchanges remain subdued.
Gold: Gold prices rebounded to a range between $5,000 and $5,100, extending a recovery in volatility driven by safe-haven buying after rising tensions between the United States and Iran, weak private jobs data offset mixed economic signals and traders reassessed the outlook for the Federal Reserve under Trump’s new chairman.
Nikkei 225 Index: Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged down about 0.3% as chip and technology heavyweights tracked Wall Street’s selloff, but the overall Japanese stock market remained relatively resilient compared with regional peers.
Elsewhere in Cryptocurrency:
- Binance denies legal threats over bankruptcy charges (The Block)
- Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani resigned after nearly a decade to move to other technology fields (CoinDesk)
